Earlier I did a top 16 list. But now I’ve started to narrow down the list.
1. Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) – I’ve finally warmed up to him, he’s the best QB prospect.
2. Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame) – His numbers weren’t overly great, but he had a weak offense at Notre Dame. He’ll do better with better receivers and a decent running back.
3. Colt McCoy (Texas)
4. Tim Tebow (Florida)
5. Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan)
6. Tony Pike (Cincinnati)
7. Tim Hiller (Western Michigan)
8. Sean Canfield (Oregon State) – Although I hate Oregon State, Canfield is a good QB.
9. Chris Todd (Auburn)
10. Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State)
Today, I heard from one person (Erik) that the San Francisco 49ers should use a 2nd round pick on a quarterback. I heard from another person (Andrew) that the Niners’ QB situation is perfect.
Let’s review: Starter Alex Smith is playing his best football since 2006 and is developing into an even better passer as his offensive situation stabilizes. Backup Shaun Hill has already shown that he can win games, leading San Francisco to a 3-0 start this year.
But what to do about the third quarterback, Nate Davis?
Nate Davis is a rookie, drafted in the 5th round of the 2009 draft out of Ball State. He’s very good, and adds some youth to the quarterback corps, but he’s not really what they need. The 49ers need a speedy QB on their roster. But Davis’ skills cannot and should not be overlooked, so keep him on the roster until Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State), Tyrod Tyler (Virginia Tech) or Skykar Jones (Wake Forest) come out and are drafted by SF. Then trade Davis for a future 5th or 6th round pick.
Each of the QB’s in this draft class have different skill sets, but all these combined and then translated to the pros set up a definitive ranking list. And here it is.
1. Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)
2. Jake Locker (Washington)
3. Colt McCoy (Texas)
4. Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
5. Tim Tebow (Florida)
6. Tony Pike (Cincinnati)
7. Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan)
8. Tim Hiller (Western Michigan)
9. Chris Todd (Auburn)
10. Jarret Brown (West Virginia)
11. Sean Canfield (Oregon State)
12. Bill Stull (Pittsburgh)
13. Rusty Smith (Florida Atlantic)
14. Max Hall (BYU)
15. Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State)
16. Tyler Sheehan (Bowling Green)
Week 12 is in the books, and given each team’s remaining schedules, here’s how I see the rest of the season and playoffs shaping up:
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings 15-1
Green Bay Packers 10-6 Div: 3-3 Conf: 8-4 NP: 81
Chicago Bears 7-9
Detroit Lions 2-14
NFC South
New Orleans Saints 16-0
Atlanta Falcons 7-9
Carolina Panthers 5-11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-14
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 Div: 3-3 Conf: 8-4 NP: 65
New York Giants 9-7
Washington Redskins 3-13
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers 9-7 Div: 6-0
Arizona Cardinals 9-7 Div: 4-2
Seattle Seahawks 5-11
St. Louis Rams 1-15
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals 12-4
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Baltimore Ravens 8-8
Cleveland Browns 2-14
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 16-0
Tennessee Titans 9-7
Houston Texans 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10 *Will lose their last 5!
AFC East
New England Patriots 11-5
Miami Dolphins 8-8 Div: 3-3
New York Jets 8-8 Div: 2-4
Buffalo Bills 5-11
AFC West
Denver Broncos 10-6 Div: 5-1 Conf: 8-4
San Diego Chargers 10-6 Div: 5-1 Conf: 7-5
Oakland Raiders 5-11
Kansas City Chiefs 4-12
NFC Playoffs
1. New Orleans Saints 16-0
2. Minnesota Vikings 15-1
3. Dallas Cowboys 12-4
4. San Francisco 49ers 9-7
5. Green Bay Packers 10-6
6. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6
AFC Playoffs
1. Indianapolis Colts 16-0
2. Cincinnati Bengals 12-4
3. New England Patriots 11-5
4. Denver Broncos 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
6. San Diego Chargers 10-6
NFC Wild Card
Green Bay Packers (10-7) < San Francisco 49ers (10-7)
Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) < Dallas Cowboys (13-4)
AFC Wild Card
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) > Denver Broncos (10-7)
San Diego Chargers (10-7) < New England Patriots (12-5)
NFC Divisional Round
San Francisco 49ers (10-8) < Minnesota Vikings (16-1)
Dallas Cowboys (12-5) < New Orleans Saints (17-0)
AFC Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) > Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)
New England Patriots (12-6) < Indianapolis Colts (17-0)
NFC Championship
Minnesota Vikings (17-1) > New Orleans Saints (17-1)
AFC Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers (14-5) > Indianapolis Colts (17-1)
Super Bowl XLIV
Minnesota Vikings (18-1) > Pittsburgh Steelers (14-6)
So if I were the Minnesota Vikings, here’s what I would do in April/May 2010.
Let’s assume Brett Favre decides to retire (for real this time). There are a few other roster fiddlings that need to occur. Trade DB Benny Sapp and WR Jaymar Johnson, cut SS Eric Frampton and P Chris Kluwe, and elevate TE Garrett Mills to the active roster. Then the draft comes, and the awesome starts.
ROUND 1: Tim Tebow, QB (Florida)
Some people say that Tim Tebow isn’t a first rounder. Well the Vikings have either the 31st or 32nd pick in the first round, so it’s practically a second round pick anyway. And we certainly want a quarterback… particularly a fast one. You see, we’re making a dual QB formation with Tarvaris Jackson and Tim Tebow in the backfield with Adrian Peterson. It doesn’t matter who receives the snap, they may lateral it to another back, or pass it downfield. This is going to give NFL defenses nightmares for years to come.
ROUND 2: Myron Lewis, CB (Vanderbilt)
After releasing Benny Sapp and with the inevitable retirement of Antoine Winfield looming in the near future, Minnesota needs a new star CB. Myron Lewis is just the fellow. He’s probably the best coverage corner in the draft. This season with Vanderbilt, he has 3 forced fumbles and 10 interceptions.
ROUND 3: John Jerry, LG (Ole Miss)
The Vikings only keep one guard on the roster for each side (left & right), and Anthony Herrera (6′2″, 315) is getting older and more expensive. Let’s draft John Jerry so that when Herrera’s current contract expires after the 2011 season, we will have a perfectly groomed and bigger (6′5″, 350) guard to replace him. Who knows, maybe Jerry will take Herrera’s starting job sooner, then we can trade him and get a draft pick.
ROUND 4: Kellen Heard, DT (Texas A&M)
One of the best features of Minnesota’s defense is our front seven. The Vikings run a 4-3 defense, so the role of defensive tackles are key. However, Pat Williams (6′3″, 317) has been in the league for 13 seasons already and his career is drawing to a close. This is the time to draft a similar-sized (6′6″, 345) tackle like Kellen Heard to begin the grooming process, during which time he can learn from Pat and bulk up.
ROUND 5: Carlos Singleton, WR (Memphis)
Minnesota’s receivers are very very very very good. But this year we traded Jaymar Johnson to the Baltimore Ravens for a 4th and a 7th round draft pick in 2011. As a result, we need a fourth receiver whose name (and image) will strike fear into the hearts of cornerbacks around the league just as much Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian, and Percy Harvin. How about a receiver who is 6′8″ tall? Carlos Singleton will be a great target for quarterbacks Jackson and Tebow.
ROUND 6: A. J. Edds, OLB (Iowa)
I simply HAD to draft somebody off this awesome Iowa Hawkeyes team. Although Edds may not be their best linebacker, he’s still quite good, and will likely fall to the 6th or 7th round. After the 2010 season, the Vikings will lose OLB Ben Leber (his contract will expire). Whether this means elevating a current backup to the starting position (thereby making Edds the backup) or giving Edds the starting job outright, another young linebacker is needed to fill this gap. The defense must not falter and everything must transition smoothly.
ROUND 7: Tyler Sheehan (Bowling Green)
Hey Aaron, didn’t you just draft a QB in the first round? I sure did, but remember how we’re technically starting BOTH Jackson AND Tebow? Basically we have the two of them starting, and Sage Rosenfels backing them both up. Who then, is the “third”/”emergency” quarterback? Well here he is: Tyler Sheehan. Of course, it’s ridiculous to have four QB’s on your active roster when you only have 53 precious roster spots, so Sheehan can go on the practice squad. Maybe when Rosenfels retires he can be elevated, or if Sheehan sucks (which we will be able to find out with him on the practice squad) we can always draft a new rookie QB when that time comes.
Finally, a couple more things. The weakest part of the Vikings team is the punter. So I’ve decided (being Vikings owner and GM in my fantasy-dreamworld) to hire a special punters coach: Sean Landeta. I’m sure he’d love to come and serve as a sort of personal trainer to my “8th round draft pick,” which is basically me signing the sure-to-be-undrafted Towson punter Bill Shears (pictured below) after the draft.
With Landeta I figure Shears can increase his punting range to 70+ yards, and become one of the greatest directional punters the league has ever seen (something he is already good at as a Towson Tiger).
The Steelers play the Ravens tomorrow in Baltimore. Baltimore’s offense has taken a huge step back, and the only thing keeping them alive is their running game, which the Steelers are #1 against.
However, the Steelers are missing three very important players: SS Troy Polamalu, LG Chris Kemoeatu, and QB Ben Roethlisberger. But this could play right at the Ravens’ weakness.
Chris Kemoeatu is our best run blocker. But Baltimore’s great against the run, so running backs Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, and Willie Parker will likely have to get elusive around the whole defensive line anyway.
Troy Polamalu is the fourth dimension of Pittsburgh’s pass defense. Without him, it’s up to cornerback Ike Taylor and the two safeties: Ryan Clark and Tyrone Carter. But with Flacco playing badly lately, there’s a good chance he’ll miss his receivers anyway.
Ben Roethlisberger is the Steelers’ champion quarterback. He is always in the top 5 best QB’s in the league. His specialties include manipulating the defense with pump fakes and using his size and strength to get out of sure sacks. However, he suffered a concussion in overtime last week, and won’t play today.
…but this is where Pittsburgh’s secret weapon comes in.
Dennis Dixon is the Steelers’ third-string quarterback. This will be his second year in the league, and his first-ever NFL start. He is a different quarterback than Big Ben. He is not as big, but he is much faster. He’s more like a Vince Young.
There is no way the Ravens will be ready for something they’ve never seen before. But Dixon’s lack of experience may prove to weaken the Steelers offense to the point of inefficacy. If that happens, this is a game where the Ravens crush the Steelers.
If not, however, Dixon will confuse the hell out of the Ravens and surprise everyone in his first pro start.
FUN FACT: Roethlisberger played his first-ever pro game in Baltimore, after Tommy Maddox was injured.
Several teams in the NFL could use a switch at the quarterback position, whether the need is immediate or impending (before the start of next season). Here is that list, in reverse order according to need.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – If Charlie Batch retires, sign Tyler Palko.
Tyler Palko (as a Cardinal in the preseason) hurdles a defender to get the first down.
Honestly, I have no idea why Palko is not playing for a team right now. He was undrafted in 2007 (out of Pitt) but signed with the New Orleans Saints to back up Drew Brees. However the Saints proceeded to sign veterans Mark Brunell and Joey Harrington. Palko was cut after the 2008 season, and played for the Arizona Cardinals in the 2009 preseason. Despite very limited playing time, Palko had the fourth-most passing yards in the league. He also has a great hurdling ability, as can be seen in the video above, or this video from his Pittsburgh Panther days where he leaps over Pac Man Jones.
Don’t get me wrong. I absolutely love Charlie Batch. The fans love him too, as he’s from the Pittsburgh area (as is Palko). I think he should stay for another three or four years with the team, but he’s currently in a one-year contract. We’ll have to see what happens in the offseason for Batch.
2. Washington Redskins – Sign a talented QB to start ahead of Jason Campbell.
As I have mentioned before, Jason Campbell has shown that he was talent. But he has talent in short spurts. He’d make one of the league’s best backup quarterbacks, but what Washington needs is a competant starter. What the Week 6 game againt the Kansas City Chiefs showed was the usual failure of Campbell, who was benched at halftime. However, his replacement, Todd Collins, showed that he was simply incompetant. The result is the realization that Washington has NO GOOD STARTERS. As they have nothing to trade to another team, they are forced into signing a free agent. So who could they sign to start?
1. Jeff Garcia. As I mentioned in the section about the Raiders, Jeff Garcia is a talented veteran who has shown that he can still make great plays. He filled in well while a backup with the Eagles, and played great in the preseason with the Raiders. He could easily start and is the best QB in free agency.
2. Gus Frerotte. This man is probably the only other free agent who could jump into a new team and start for them. He’s in his waning years, but he had a great year with the Vikings last year, going 9-3 as a starter before falling to an injury.
3. Tyler Palko. This man has so much talent. He’s worth trying as a starter. Plus, if he proves himself, he could be a franchise QB. (Then Campbell, in the last year of his contract, could back up Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh!)
1. Oakland Raiders – Replace JaMarcus Russell!
Russell is a backup. He should be, anyway. But the Raiders seem to enjoy pretending he’s some sort of starter. So who should start for the Raiders?
1. Bruce Gradkowski. FINALLY in Week 7, Russell was benched in favor of Gradkowski. He went 10/19 for 97 yards with no picks, plus 25 yards rushing. A Pittsburgh native, he’s worth giving a try in Oakland. Anything is better than JaMarcus failure.
2. Jeff Garcia. I thought it was a great move by the Raiders in the offseason to sign this veteran quarterback. However, they quickly made a typical Raiders move and CUT HIM!!!
In a related issue, here are three teams who DO NOT need a new QB.
1. Kansas City Chiefs. Matt Cassel, as we know, has the potential to have 400+ yard passing games. However, he doesn’t seem to have the team around him in Kansas City to make those types of plays.
2. Buffalo Bills. Trent Edwards is a great quarterback. True, he is injured. But Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven that he is a capable backup. And if he falls, there’s Gibran Hamdan to try out. The problem isn’t at QB in Buffalo; the problem is trying to play 1990’s football in the late 2000’s.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This may be a surprise to some, that the 0-7 Bucs don’t have a QB problem. But they don’t. They have a coaching problem. There is no excuse for a team with this amount of talent to be winless. QB’s Byron Leftwich and Josh Johnson are very talented in their own ways.
Last week I was just kidding about 50% of my picks. This week it’s no joke.
Houston Texans (2-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-1). This is the week to see if the Bengals are for real. So far they’ve beaten easy teams and division teams. What will happen when they come up against an explosive team from the south, who beat them 35-6 last year? Another win for the Texans. This is also an important game for Houston, to see if they can pull off any consistent offense, or if their wins this season were just flukes.
Detroit Lions (1-4) @ Green Bay Packers (2-2). If Daunte Culpepper starts for the Lions, they have a great chance of winning. The Packers may have an impressive series record, but here’s two key stats that are game-changers. The Packers have given up 20 sacks this season, the most in the NFL, and that’s including an early bye. Secondly, Culpepper has 14 touchdows and no picks in his last five games against the Packers. This is a close Lions win.
St. Louis Rams (0-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3). The Jaguars are a team that has two modes: on (where David Garrard throws over 300 yards and Maurice Jones-Drew owns the field) and off (where they are shut out by 40+ points). St. Louis is a team that fails miserably and turns the ball over just when you think they might stop failing just for a second. I say the Jaguars are coming from an off week and so will turn it on against the Rams.
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) @Minnesota Vikings (5-0). Baltimore is a good, strong team on both sides of the ball. Minnesota is a better, stronger team. There is no place on the field where the Ravens have an edge. Still, this will be a tough, close game, and yet a Vikings win.
New York Giants (5-0) @ New Orleans Saints (5-0). In the battle of the undefeated teams (and possibly a foreshadowing of the NFC Championship game), I honestly don’t know who to pick. Both teams have strong quarterbacks, offenses and defenses. I think the Giants defense is slightly better, but I’m still picking the Saints to win it at home.
Cleveland Browns (1-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2). Some could make the argument that the Bengals game proved that the Steelers cannot be too overconfident in division games. However, Cincy really IS that good. Cleveland, not at all. Now their best receiver is Josh Cribbs, and he’s a B-grade receiver. Plus the Steelers get back Troy Polamalu AND Willy Parker this week. Easy Steelers win.
Carolina Panthers (1-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5). The nice thing about two horrible teams playing each other is that somebody ends up with a win. This week, it will be the Bucs. And this may be the last year for John Fox in Carolina. (Bill Cowher?)
Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) @ Washington Redskins (2-3). I keep forgetting the Redskins are 2-3 and not 0-5, the way they’ve been playing. The team is extremely demoralized and it’s the owership’s fault for not giving a straight answer on head coach Jim Zorn’s future. The Redskins have a huge amount of talent, but players like QB Jason Campbell and CB DeAngelo Hall are actually regressing while everyone else are simply stagnant. Owner Daniel Snyder will likely fire Zorn after losing to the Chiefs, as he should. But, he does have cool hair.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) @ Oakland Raiders (1-4). JaMarcus Russell will amazingly be able to throw the ball to his own team AND not fumble it. Meanwhile, pressure on Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb will keep him from throwing consistently. This therefore becomes a surprising upset win for the Raiders.
To contrast with the five starters that should be backups, here is a list of five backup quarterbacks who could easily start for a team in the NFL, in reverse order:
5. Kevin Kolb (Philadelphia Eagles)
He started two games while Donovan McNabb was out, and had phenomenal games. The first game he completed 60.8% of his passes for 391 yards and two touchdowns. The second game, he completed 70.6% of his passes for 327 yards. Two more touchdowns. No picks.
4. Byron Leftwich (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
He looked bad in the first three games with Tampa Bay, because the team is horrible, mainly the offensive line. You have to look at his years with Jacksonville, or his year with Pittsburgh just last season to know this guy makes a great quarterback. All he needs is a strong o-line and he’s deadly. Put him in a team like the Denver Broncos; I think he’d do better than Kyle Orton.
3. Seneca Wallace (Seattle Seahawks)
This guy is regularly called upon to replace an oft-injured Matt Hasselbeck, or even alongside Hasselbeck in a wildcat formation. Wallace is accurate and mobile as well. He’d make a great starter for a team with great receivers but a struggling offensive line.
2. Sage Rosenfels (Minnesota Vikings)
Sage Rosenfels is good. He was the best QB the Texans had ever seen, even including the early days of the Matt Schaub era. The Vikings entrusted their season’s success to him this year, although the second coming of Brett Favre has put a hold on the Rosenfels era. But Tarvaris Jackson should NOT start. Rosenfels should. After Favre is done for good, of course.
1. Daunte Culpepper (Detroit Lions)
I honestly don’t know why the Lions chose to start rookie Matthew Stafford this year. They are setting him up for failure. And the numbers show that Culpepper is much better: Stafford has thrown 3 TD’s and 6 picks. Culpepper 1 and 1. Stafford took 10 sacks against the Redskins and Bears. Culpepper took 7 against the Steelers. Against the Saints in week 1, Stafford completed 43.2% of his passes. Against a better defense, the Steelers, Culpepper completed 62.2% of his passes. Daunte Culpepper is not the beast he used to be in Minnesota, but he’s still a starter.
