penguinpride

Andrew’s bust flags:

1. QB Cam Newton

2. LB Von Miller

3. QB Christian Ponder – while Andrew hates this pick (and I think he was picked to early at 12th overall) I think he’ll be decent if he doesn’t have to start in week 1. Now Leslie Frazier can move Joe Webb to WR where he belongs.

4. DE Robert Quinn

5. C Mike Pouncey

6. DT Corey Liuget

7. CB Prince Amukamura (?!)

8. G Danny Watkins

9. DE Cameron Jordan

10. WR Jonathan Baldwin

11. CB Jimmy Smith

Aaron’s bust flags:

1. DE Robert Quinn

2. QB Jake Locker

3. G Danny Watkins

4. WR AJ Green – after thinking it over a bit, I added Green to the list. I think the Bengals is one of the worst teams to play for, and they really needed a QB. Who’s going to throw the ball to AJ Green? Carson Palmer is a good backup but his starting days are over. Jordan Palmer is garbage and JT O’Sullivan is pretty bad as well. As far as receiving skills, I would have taken Julio Jones any day.

Late (4-7) round steals:

4-4 – OL Clint Boling, Georgia (Cincinnati Bengals)

4-7 – TE Luke Stocker, Tennessee (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

4-9 – DT Christian Ballard, Iowa (Minnesota Vikings)

4-16 – CB Chmdi Chekwa, Ohio State (Oakland Raiders)

4-26 – WR Tandon Doss, Indiana (Baltimore Ravens) – the fact that the Ravens just drafted TWO good receivers (Doss and Torrey Smith from Maryland) means they probably won’t resign TJ Houshmandzadeh.

4-28 – RB Taiwan Jones, Eastern Washington (Oakland Raiders)

5-1 – RB Johnny White, North Carolina (Buffalo Bills)

5-7 – OL Marcus Cannon, TCU (New England Patriots)

5-8 – CB Brandon Burton, Utah (Minnesota Vikings)

5-10 – TE DJ Williams, Arkansas (Green Bay Packers)

5-14 – RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State (Atlanta Falcons)

5-20 – S Ahmad Black, Florida (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

6-3 – OT DeMarcus Love, Arkansas (Minnesota Vikings)

6-6 – LB Quan Sturdivant, North Carolina (Arizona Cardinals)

6-33 – S Tyler Sash, Iowa (New York Giants)

7-41 – OL Lee Ziemba, Auburn (Carolina Panthers)

1. The Pittsburgh Steelers will have a bounceback year with an improved secondary and more of a running game. The only question is: can Byron Leftwich win games starting at QB for 4-6 weeks?

2. The Baltimore Ravens now have a legitimate passing attack with the addition of WR Anquan Boldin.  But this team still has holes, mainly in the secondary.

3. The Cleveland Browns will be rejuvenated by young talent and a complete overhaul at QB. Jake Delhomme can still play, especially with the right coaching. And Eric Mangini will always have a trick or two up his sleeve.

4. The Cincinnati Bengals will take a step back after their sudden burst last year. It always seems to go this way with the Bengals; in 2005 they went 11-5 then went to .500 or worse for the next three seasons.

Maybe it’s because I live in Baltimore, but there sure seems to be a lot of “Ravens are sure to win the division” nonsense floating about and I intend to straighten some people out.

Anything can happen during the season, but this division could be won by wither the Steelers, Ravens, or Bengals this year. The only reason I’m excluding the Browns is the fact that they won’t start Colt McCoy.

So, people (Ravens fanz) are busy blowing their loads over Anquan Boldin, thinking he’s a free ticket to the Super Bowl or some equivalent nonsense. If I were only excited about one new player on the Steelers, we’d be in serious trouble.

“Oh but we got lots more than just B0ld1n!!” says the Ravens kid. When asked “WHO?” they invariably give one of the following as “answers:”

1. Donte Stallworth. A mediocre journeyman receiver who has played for 5 different teams. In 2008, he had a grand total of 17 catches and one touchdown. In 2009, he had NOTHING because he was suspended for the entire season for drinking, driving, and killing a person.
2. OMG BEST DRAFT EVER. The Ravens draft was great, but nobody is likely to start this coming season. Remember kids, the only people who are going to help you this year are the ones actually playing.

That goes for you too, Terrence Cody.

So the draft has begun. I wish I had a microphone so I could record all of Andrew’s random comments.

He threw the Bust Flag on the Redskins’ first round pick of Trent Williams. Don’t forget it… ANDREW CALLED A BUST ON THIS GUY. So when Williams emerges as the best left tackle in the league, we can all point and laugh at him.

Ahh by the way, I forgot about pick 2. I disagree with the Lions’ pick of DT Ndamukong Suh. Sure, Suh is a beast. But you have to protect your huge investment of QB Matt Stafford. Stafford could be their franchise quarterback, if they can keep him healthy (and protected). Also, I’m not so sure that there will be any great left tackles who fall out of the first round, even to pick 34 (Lions’ second round pick). On the other hand, DT Terrence Cody might. I just feel like that sequence would be much more sufficient, and then the Lions would have both a left tackle and defensive tackle.

10th overall…. WHAAAAT???!!!!?!?! Who is Tyson Alualu?! (*Andrew throws 2nd Bust Flag)

I LOVE the 49ers first pick at #11:  OT Anthony Davis. This shows that they’re committed to Alex Smith, and to an extent Glen Coffee as well. Instead of drafting a QB to replace Smith, they invested in protecting him. Davis will also provide some nice run support for Gore and Coffee.

I also LOVE the 49ers second pick at #17: OG Mike Iupati. I actually had this one right in my mock draft. In addition to providing TREMENDOUS run protection, the 49ers now have two first-round rookies on their offensive line.

I’m surprised OT Bryan Bulaga fell all the way to #23. My mock actually had him going to the Redskins at #4 overall (Okung being my choice for Detroit at #2). Too bad he went to the Packers, my third-least favorite team.

Andrew threw his third Bust Flag on DE Jason Pierre-Paul.

Even more surprising is WR Dez Bryant falling all the way to #24. It sucks that he was picked AFTER Demaryus Thomas (Andrew’s fourth Bust Flag!), despite clearly being the best receiver in the draft. Too bad he went to the Cowboys, my second-least favorite team.

#25 – TIM TEBOW AHEAD OF JIMMY CLAUSEN AND COLT MCCOY?! What is this world coming to??! Andrew threw his 5th Bust Flag at this one. Prove us wrong, Tim.

The 6th Bust Flag goes to DT Jared Odrick, going #28 to the Dolphins. Andrew says he is “over-rated.” I’m a bit more conservative with my bust flags; I’m only throwing it at Demaryus Thomas.

…see what I mean? Andrew’s 7th Bust Flag thrown at DE Jerry Hughes, picked #31 by the Colts. AND CB Patrick Robinson (8)!

Updating my earlier prediction.

8. Jevan Snead (Ole Miss)
9. Sean Canfield (Oregon State)
10. Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State)
11. Ryan Perrilloux (Jacksonville State)
12. Bill Stull (Pittsburgh)

This coming NFL season is going to be awesome. At this point, halfway through the free agency period, I’ve started to compile a bit of a standings list, which of course, will be 100% correct.

NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Atlanta Falcons

NFC East
1. New York Giants
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Washington Redskins*

NFC West – again, the worst division in football.
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. St. Louis Rams
4. Seattle Seahawks*

AFC North – actually this could be a 4-way tossup.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Cleveland Browns

AFC South
1. Tennessee Titans
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC East – probably the 3rd worst division in football.
1. New York Jets
2. New England Patriots
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills*

AFC West – 2nd worst!
1. Denver Broncos
2. Oakland Raiders – dependent on them resigning QB Bruce Gradkowski
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Kansas City Chiefs*

*Asterisks mean that this team will undergo a “rebuilding year.”

2010 Breakout Team:  Cleveland Browns

Scary Defense. The Washington Redskins are setting themselves up for an even better defense, as they switch to the 3-4. The Redskins are, hopefully, signing older veterans to fill in holes and groom younger players while still being good. They signed NT Ma’ake Kemoeatu on Wednesday, and some are going as far as saying that he will be the anchor of their defense. He might be, if he can stay healthy. He spent last season on IR after an injury to his Achilles tendon.

Scary defense, scary man.

What makes things even scarier is that the two stars of last year’s Redskins defense, DT Albert Haynesworth and LB Brian Orakpo, will be right at home in the 3-4. Haynesworth has the speed (and definitely the power) to be an effective defensive end, while Orakpo could easily play either outside or inside linebacker.

Lions outlook: Good. As long as QB Matt Stafford stays healthy, they have a pretty good offense. Look for the Lions to go after offensive linemen in the draft… right after they draft DT Ndamukong Suh. Also, they signed DE Kyle Vanden Bosch.

But back to the offense, their only star up until last year was WR Calvin Johnson. That man can make plays happen to a point where he atones for mistakes by the quarterback. So defenses have learned to put Johnson in heavy coverage, because the other receivers weren’t good enough to make plays if they did catch the ball.  But now, the Lions have signed WR Nate Burleson. Although he hasn’t exactly lived up to his potential, he will likely find himself wide open when defensive backs swarm Johnson.

Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson

Earlier I did a top 16 list. But now I’ve started to narrow down the list.

1. Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) – I’ve finally warmed up to him, he’s the best QB prospect.
2. Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame) – His numbers weren’t overly great, but he had a weak offense at Notre Dame. He’ll do better with better receivers and a decent running back.
3. Colt McCoy (Texas)
4. Tim Tebow (Florida)
5. Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan)
6. Tony Pike (Cincinnati)
7. Tim Hiller (Western Michigan)
8. Sean Canfield (Oregon State) – Although I hate Oregon State, Canfield is a good QB.
9. Chris Todd (Auburn)
10. Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State)

Today, I heard from one person (Erik) that the San Francisco 49ers should use a 2nd round pick on a quarterback. I heard from another person (Andrew) that the Niners’ QB situation is perfect.

Let’s review: Starter Alex Smith is playing his best football since 2006 and is developing into an even better passer as his offensive situation stabilizes. Backup Shaun Hill has already shown that he can win games, leading San Francisco to a 3-0 start this year.

But what to do about the third quarterback, Nate Davis?

Nate Davis is a rookie, drafted in the 5th round of the 2009 draft out of Ball State. He’s very good, and adds some youth to the quarterback corps, but he’s not really what they need. The 49ers need a speedy QB on their roster. But Davis’ skills cannot and should not be overlooked, so keep him on the roster until Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State), Tyrod Tyler (Virginia Tech) or Skykar Jones (Wake Forest) come out and are drafted by SF. Then trade Davis for a future 5th or 6th round pick.

Each of the QB’s in this draft class have different skill sets, but all these combined and then translated to the pros set up a definitive ranking list. And here it is.

1. Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)
2. Jake Locker (Washington)
3. Colt McCoy (Texas)
4. Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
5. Tim Tebow (Florida)
6. Tony Pike (Cincinnati)
7. Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan)
8. Tim Hiller (Western Michigan)
9. Chris Todd (Auburn)
10. Jarret Brown (West Virginia)
11. Sean Canfield (Oregon State)
12. Bill Stull (Pittsburgh)
13. Rusty Smith (Florida Atlantic)
14. Max Hall (BYU)
15. Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State)
16. Tyler Sheehan (Bowling Green)

Week 12 is in the books, and given each team’s remaining schedules, here’s how I see the rest of the season and playoffs shaping up:

NFC North
Minnesota Vikings 15-1
Green Bay Packers 10-6 Div: 3-3 Conf: 8-4 NP: 81
Chicago Bears 7-9
Detroit Lions 2-14

NFC South
New Orleans Saints 16-0
Atlanta Falcons 7-9
Carolina Panthers 5-11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-14

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 Div: 3-3 Conf: 8-4 NP: 65
New York Giants 9-7
Washington Redskins 3-13

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers 9-7 Div: 6-0
Arizona Cardinals 9-7 Div: 4-2
Seattle Seahawks 5-11
St. Louis Rams 1-15

AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals 12-4
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Baltimore Ravens 8-8
Cleveland Browns 2-14

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 16-0
Tennessee Titans 9-7
Houston Texans 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10 *Will lose their last 5!

AFC East
New England Patriots 11-5
Miami Dolphins 8-8 Div: 3-3
New York Jets 8-8 Div: 2-4
Buffalo Bills 5-11

AFC West
Denver Broncos 10-6 Div: 5-1 Conf: 8-4
San Diego Chargers 10-6 Div: 5-1 Conf: 7-5
Oakland Raiders 5-11
Kansas City Chiefs 4-12

NFC Playoffs
1. New Orleans Saints 16-0
2. Minnesota Vikings 15-1
3. Dallas Cowboys 12-4
4. San Francisco 49ers 9-7
5. Green Bay Packers 10-6
6. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6

AFC Playoffs
1. Indianapolis Colts 16-0
2. Cincinnati Bengals 12-4
3. New England Patriots 11-5
4. Denver Broncos 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
6. San Diego Chargers 10-6

NFC Wild Card
Green Bay Packers (10-7) < San Francisco 49ers (10-7)
Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) < Dallas Cowboys (13-4)

AFC Wild Card
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) > Denver Broncos (10-7)
San Diego Chargers (10-7) < New England Patriots (12-5)

NFC Divisional Round
San Francisco 49ers (10-8) < Minnesota Vikings (16-1)
Dallas Cowboys (12-5) < New Orleans Saints (17-0)

AFC Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) > Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)
New England Patriots (12-6) < Indianapolis Colts (17-0)

NFC Championship
Minnesota Vikings (17-1) > New Orleans Saints (17-1)

AFC Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers (14-5) > Indianapolis Colts (17-1)

Super Bowl XLIV
Minnesota Vikings (18-1) > Pittsburgh Steelers (14-6)

So if I were the Minnesota Vikings, here’s what I would do in April/May 2010.

Let’s assume Brett Favre decides to retire (for real this time). There are a few other roster fiddlings that need to occur. Trade DB Benny Sapp and WR Jaymar Johnson, cut SS Eric Frampton and P Chris Kluwe, and elevate TE Garrett Mills to the active roster. Then the draft comes, and the awesome starts.

ROUND 1: Tim Tebow, QB (Florida)

Some people say that Tim Tebow isn’t a first rounder. Well the Vikings have either the 31st or 32nd pick in the first round, so it’s practically a second round pick anyway. And we certainly want a quarterback… particularly a fast one. You see, we’re making a dual QB formation with Tarvaris Jackson and Tim Tebow in the backfield with Adrian Peterson. It doesn’t matter who receives the snap, they may lateral it to another back, or pass it downfield. This is going to give NFL defenses nightmares for years to come.

ROUND 2: Myron Lewis, CB (Vanderbilt)

After releasing Benny Sapp and with the inevitable retirement of Antoine Winfield looming in the near future, Minnesota needs a new star CB. Myron Lewis is just the fellow. He’s probably the best coverage corner in the draft. This season with Vanderbilt, he has 3 forced fumbles and 10 interceptions.

ROUND 3: John Jerry, LG (Ole Miss)

The Vikings only keep one guard on the roster for each side (left & right), and Anthony Herrera (6’2″, 315) is getting older and more expensive. Let’s draft John Jerry so that when Herrera’s current contract expires after the 2011 season, we will have a perfectly groomed and bigger (6’5″, 350) guard to replace him. Who knows, maybe Jerry will take Herrera’s starting job sooner, then we can trade him and get a draft pick.

ROUND 4: Kellen Heard, DT (Texas A&M)

One of the best features of Minnesota’s defense is our front seven. The Vikings run a 4-3 defense, so the role of defensive tackles are key. However, Pat Williams (6’3″, 317) has been in the league for 13 seasons already and his career is drawing to a close. This is the time to draft a similar-sized (6’6″, 345) tackle like Kellen Heard to begin the grooming process, during which time he can learn from Pat and bulk up.

ROUND 5: Carlos Singleton, WR (Memphis)

Minnesota’s receivers are very very very very good. But this year we traded Jaymar Johnson to the Baltimore Ravens for a 4th and a 7th round draft pick in 2011. As a result, we need a fourth receiver whose name (and image) will strike fear into the hearts of cornerbacks around the league just as much Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian, and Percy Harvin. How about a receiver who is 6’8″ tall? Carlos Singleton will be a great target for quarterbacks Jackson and Tebow.

ROUND 6: A. J. Edds, OLB (Iowa)

I simply HAD to draft somebody off this awesome Iowa Hawkeyes team. Although Edds may not be their best linebacker, he’s still quite good, and will likely fall to the 6th or 7th round. After the 2010 season, the Vikings will lose OLB Ben Leber (his contract will expire). Whether this means elevating a current backup to the starting position (thereby making Edds the backup) or giving Edds the starting job outright, another young linebacker is needed to fill this gap. The defense must not falter and everything must transition smoothly.

ROUND 7: Tyler Sheehan (Bowling Green)

Hey Aaron, didn’t you just draft a QB in the first round? I sure did, but remember how we’re technically starting BOTH Jackson AND Tebow? Basically we have the two of them starting, and Sage Rosenfels backing them both up. Who then, is the “third”/”emergency” quarterback? Well here he is: Tyler Sheehan. Of course, it’s ridiculous to have four QB’s on your active roster when you only have 53 precious roster spots, so Sheehan can go on the practice squad. Maybe when Rosenfels retires he can be elevated, or if Sheehan sucks (which we will be able to find out with him on the practice squad) we can always draft a new rookie QB when that time comes.

Finally, a couple more things. The weakest part of the Vikings team is the punter. So I’ve decided (being Vikings owner and GM in my fantasy-dreamworld) to hire a special punters coach: Sean Landeta. I’m sure he’d love to come and serve as a sort of personal trainer to my “8th round draft pick,” which is basically me signing the sure-to-be-undrafted Towson punter Bill Shears (pictured below) after the draft.

With Landeta I figure Shears can increase his punting range to 70+ yards, and become one of the greatest directional punters the league has ever seen (something he is already good at as a Towson Tiger).