penguinpride

1. The Pittsburgh Steelers will have a bounceback year with an improved secondary and more of a running game. The only question is: can Byron Leftwich win games starting at QB for 4-6 weeks?

2. The Baltimore Ravens now have a legitimate passing attack with the addition of WR Anquan Boldin.  But this team still has holes, mainly in the secondary.

3. The Cleveland Browns will be rejuvenated by young talent and a complete overhaul at QB. Jake Delhomme can still play, especially with the right coaching. And Eric Mangini will always have a trick or two up his sleeve.

4. The Cincinnati Bengals will take a step back after their sudden burst last year. It always seems to go this way with the Bengals; in 2005 they went 11-5 then went to .500 or worse for the next three seasons.

Maybe it’s because I live in Baltimore, but there sure seems to be a lot of “Ravens are sure to win the division” nonsense floating about and I intend to straighten some people out.

Anything can happen during the season, but this division could be won by wither the Steelers, Ravens, or Bengals this year. The only reason I’m excluding the Browns is the fact that they won’t start Colt McCoy.

So, people (Ravens fanz) are busy blowing their loads over Anquan Boldin, thinking he’s a free ticket to the Super Bowl or some equivalent nonsense. If I were only excited about one new player on the Steelers, we’d be in serious trouble.

“Oh but we got lots more than just B0ld1n!!” says the Ravens kid. When asked “WHO?” they invariably give one of the following as “answers:”

1. Donte Stallworth. A mediocre journeyman receiver who has played for 5 different teams. In 2008, he had a grand total of 17 catches and one touchdown. In 2009, he had NOTHING because he was suspended for the entire season for drinking, driving, and killing a person.
2. OMG BEST DRAFT EVER. The Ravens draft was great, but nobody is likely to start this coming season. Remember kids, the only people who are going to help you this year are the ones actually playing.

That goes for you too, Terrence Cody.

This coming NFL season is going to be awesome. At this point, halfway through the free agency period, I’ve started to compile a bit of a standings list, which of course, will be 100% correct.

NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Atlanta Falcons

NFC East
1. New York Giants
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Washington Redskins*

NFC West – again, the worst division in football.
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. St. Louis Rams
4. Seattle Seahawks*

AFC North – actually this could be a 4-way tossup.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Cleveland Browns

AFC South
1. Tennessee Titans
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC East – probably the 3rd worst division in football.
1. New York Jets
2. New England Patriots
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills*

AFC West – 2nd worst!
1. Denver Broncos
2. Oakland Raiders – dependent on them resigning QB Bruce Gradkowski
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Kansas City Chiefs*

*Asterisks mean that this team will undergo a “rebuilding year.”

2010 Breakout Team:  Cleveland Browns

Scary Defense. The Washington Redskins are setting themselves up for an even better defense, as they switch to the 3-4. The Redskins are, hopefully, signing older veterans to fill in holes and groom younger players while still being good. They signed NT Ma’ake Kemoeatu on Wednesday, and some are going as far as saying that he will be the anchor of their defense. He might be, if he can stay healthy. He spent last season on IR after an injury to his Achilles tendon.

Scary defense, scary man.

What makes things even scarier is that the two stars of last year’s Redskins defense, DT Albert Haynesworth and LB Brian Orakpo, will be right at home in the 3-4. Haynesworth has the speed (and definitely the power) to be an effective defensive end, while Orakpo could easily play either outside or inside linebacker.

Lions outlook: Good. As long as QB Matt Stafford stays healthy, they have a pretty good offense. Look for the Lions to go after offensive linemen in the draft… right after they draft DT Ndamukong Suh. Also, they signed DE Kyle Vanden Bosch.

But back to the offense, their only star up until last year was WR Calvin Johnson. That man can make plays happen to a point where he atones for mistakes by the quarterback. So defenses have learned to put Johnson in heavy coverage, because the other receivers weren’t good enough to make plays if they did catch the ball.  But now, the Lions have signed WR Nate Burleson. Although he hasn’t exactly lived up to his potential, he will likely find himself wide open when defensive backs swarm Johnson.

Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson

Week 12 is in the books, and given each team’s remaining schedules, here’s how I see the rest of the season and playoffs shaping up:

NFC North
Minnesota Vikings 15-1
Green Bay Packers 10-6 Div: 3-3 Conf: 8-4 NP: 81
Chicago Bears 7-9
Detroit Lions 2-14

NFC South
New Orleans Saints 16-0
Atlanta Falcons 7-9
Carolina Panthers 5-11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-14

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 Div: 3-3 Conf: 8-4 NP: 65
New York Giants 9-7
Washington Redskins 3-13

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers 9-7 Div: 6-0
Arizona Cardinals 9-7 Div: 4-2
Seattle Seahawks 5-11
St. Louis Rams 1-15

AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals 12-4
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Baltimore Ravens 8-8
Cleveland Browns 2-14

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 16-0
Tennessee Titans 9-7
Houston Texans 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10 *Will lose their last 5!

AFC East
New England Patriots 11-5
Miami Dolphins 8-8 Div: 3-3
New York Jets 8-8 Div: 2-4
Buffalo Bills 5-11

AFC West
Denver Broncos 10-6 Div: 5-1 Conf: 8-4
San Diego Chargers 10-6 Div: 5-1 Conf: 7-5
Oakland Raiders 5-11
Kansas City Chiefs 4-12

NFC Playoffs
1. New Orleans Saints 16-0
2. Minnesota Vikings 15-1
3. Dallas Cowboys 12-4
4. San Francisco 49ers 9-7
5. Green Bay Packers 10-6
6. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6

AFC Playoffs
1. Indianapolis Colts 16-0
2. Cincinnati Bengals 12-4
3. New England Patriots 11-5
4. Denver Broncos 10-6
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
6. San Diego Chargers 10-6

NFC Wild Card
Green Bay Packers (10-7) < San Francisco 49ers (10-7)
Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) < Dallas Cowboys (13-4)

AFC Wild Card
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) > Denver Broncos (10-7)
San Diego Chargers (10-7) < New England Patriots (12-5)

NFC Divisional Round
San Francisco 49ers (10-8) < Minnesota Vikings (16-1)
Dallas Cowboys (12-5) < New Orleans Saints (17-0)

AFC Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) > Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)
New England Patriots (12-6) < Indianapolis Colts (17-0)

NFC Championship
Minnesota Vikings (17-1) > New Orleans Saints (17-1)

AFC Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers (14-5) > Indianapolis Colts (17-1)

Super Bowl XLIV
Minnesota Vikings (18-1) > Pittsburgh Steelers (14-6)

Updated November 29, 2009. There may be a new(er) and therefore correct(er) draft! Check here.

First overall pick.

Also, check out DraftBattle.com for my roomie’s silly picks.

The Steelers play the Ravens tomorrow in Baltimore. Baltimore’s offense has taken a huge step back, and the only thing keeping them alive is their running game, which the Steelers are #1 against.

However, the Steelers are missing three very important players: SS Troy Polamalu, LG Chris Kemoeatu, and QB Ben Roethlisberger. But this could play right at the Ravens’ weakness.

Chris Kemoeatu is our best run blocker. But Baltimore’s great against the run, so running backs Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, and Willie Parker will likely have to get elusive around the whole defensive line anyway.

Troy Polamalu is the fourth dimension of Pittsburgh’s pass defense. Without him, it’s up to cornerback Ike Taylor and the two safeties: Ryan Clark and Tyrone Carter. But with Flacco playing badly lately, there’s a good chance he’ll miss his receivers anyway.

Ben Roethlisberger is the Steelers’ champion quarterback. He is always in the top 5 best QB’s in the league. His specialties include manipulating the defense with pump fakes and using his size and strength to get out of sure sacks. However, he suffered a concussion in overtime last week, and won’t play today.

…but this is where Pittsburgh’s secret weapon comes in.

Dennis Dixon is the Steelers’ third-string quarterback. This will be his second year in the league, and his first-ever NFL start. He is a different quarterback than Big Ben. He is not as big, but he is much faster. He’s more like a Vince Young.

There is no way the Ravens will be ready for something they’ve never seen before. But Dixon’s lack of experience may prove to weaken the Steelers offense to the point of inefficacy. If that happens, this is a game where the Ravens crush the Steelers.

If not, however, Dixon will confuse the hell out of the Ravens and surprise everyone in his first pro start.

FUN FACT: Roethlisberger played his first-ever pro game in Baltimore, after Tommy Maddox was injured.

Last week I was just kidding about 50% of my picks. This week it’s no joke.

Houston Texans (2-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-1). This is the week to see if the Bengals are for real. So far they’ve beaten easy teams and division teams. What will happen when they come up against an explosive team from the south, who beat them 35-6 last year? Another win for the Texans. This is also an important game for Houston, to see if they can pull off any consistent offense, or if their wins this season were just flukes.

Detroit Lions (1-4) @ Green Bay Packers (2-2). If Daunte Culpepper starts for the Lions, they have a great chance of winning. The Packers may have an impressive series record, but here’s two key stats that are game-changers. The Packers have given up 20 sacks this season, the most in the NFL, and that’s including an early bye. Secondly, Culpepper has 14 touchdows and no picks in his last five games against the Packers. This is a close Lions win.

St. Louis Rams (0-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3). The Jaguars are a team that has two modes: on (where David Garrard throws over 300 yards and Maurice Jones-Drew owns the field) and off (where they are shut out by 40+ points). St. Louis is a team that fails miserably and turns the ball over just when you think they might stop failing just for a second. I say the Jaguars are coming from an off week and so will turn it on against the Rams.

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-0). Baltimore is a good, strong team on both sides of the ball. Minnesota is a better, stronger team. There is no place on the field where the Ravens have an edge. Still, this will be a tough, close game, and yet a Vikings win.

New York Giants (5-0) @ New Orleans Saints (5-0). In the battle of the undefeated teams (and possibly a foreshadowing of the NFC Championship game), I honestly don’t know who to pick. Both teams have strong quarterbacks, offenses and defenses. I think the Giants defense is slightly better, but I’m still picking the Saints to win it at home.

Cleveland Browns (1-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2). Some could make the argument that the Bengals game proved that the Steelers cannot be too overconfident in division games. However, Cincy really IS that good. Cleveland, not at all. Now their best receiver is Josh Cribbs, and he’s a B-grade receiver. Plus the Steelers get back Troy Polamalu AND Willy Parker this week. Easy Steelers win.

Carolina Panthers (1-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5). The nice thing about two horrible teams playing each other is that somebody ends up with a win. This week, it will be the Bucs. And this may be the last year for John Fox in Carolina. (Bill Cowher?)

Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) @ Washington Redskins (2-3). I keep forgetting the Redskins are 2-3 and not 0-5, the way they’ve been playing. The team is extremely demoralized and it’s the owership’s fault for not giving a straight answer on head coach Jim Zorn’s future. The Redskins have a huge amount of talent, but players like QB Jason Campbell and CB DeAngelo Hall are actually regressing while everyone else are simply stagnant. Owner Daniel Snyder will likely fire Zorn after losing to the Chiefs, as he should.

But, he does have cool hair.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) @ Oakland Raiders (1-4). JaMarcus Russell will amazingly be able to throw the ball to his own team AND not fumble it. Meanwhile, pressure on Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb will keep him from throwing consistently. This therefore becomes a surprising upset win for the Raiders.

Other games:

Arizona Cardinals < Seattle Seahawks

Tennessee Titans < New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills < New York Jets

Chicago Bears < Atlanta Falcons

Denver Broncos > San Diego Chargers

Who’s going to win in Week 5? I know. And you don’t.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-1). As I mentioned in the power rankings, the ’09 Ravens look like the ’05 Steelers in both offense and defense, and the ’05 Steelers won a Super Bowl. I’m picking the Ravens because I believe the Bengals’ early success to be a fluke. They have had success through the air, so they’re going to go there in hopes that they can win. Unfortunately this strategy does not work against the Ravens defense.

Cleveland Browns (0-4) @ Buffalo Bills (1-3). What do you call it when a team has talent but it gets shipped off somewhere else? The Pittsburgh Pirates. Actually it’s called BAD OWNERSHIP. Who in their right mind would hire Eric Mangini right after he gets fired? Mangini didn’t lead the Jets to 9-7, the team’s raw talent did that all by themselves. Braylon Edwards was their best player, and now he’s on the Jets, as if they needed a stud receiver. Buffalo is not horrible, they’ve had a hard schedule though. They almost beat the Patriots in Week 1. I’m going with the Bills.

Washington Redskins (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (0-3). If Jason Campbell can play like he did in the second half of the Tampa Bay game, this one goes to Washington. If Jake Delhomme can hook up with Steve Smith without getting picked off, this one goes to Carolina. So which scenario is more likely? Given the Redskins’ horrible coaching, I doubt Campbell can repeat last week’s success and the Panthers will win this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) @ Detroit Lions (1-3). This will be the first meeting between Larry Foote and his former team. The Lions are much improved since last year, but they are not good enough to take on the Steelers’ explosive offense. Steelers CB Ike Taylor will be matched up against WR Calvin Johnson, and a safety should always double team him, because there are no other viable receivers for Daunte Culepper/Matt Stafford. The Steelers take this one easily, even without Willie Parker and Troy Polamalu.

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (0-4). I don’t know why the Chiefs released their two best defensive players. But they have Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe, and Larry Johnson on offense. They still have a decent team. So do the Cowboys, but Tony Romo has been failing lately. Although I like the Chiefs in general and think they have more talent than they’re showing, the Cowboys will win this game.

Oakland Raiders (1-3) @ New York Giants (4-0). This game features the Oakland Raiders, playing at the home of the New York Giants. Based on that information alone, the Giants win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-1). This will be the game that Tampa Bay pulls it all together. Aqib Talib will have 3 or 4 picks on Donovan McNabb, and Michael Vick will gain no yards whatsoever. On the other side of the ball, Josh Johnson will pass and run all over the field. What Tampa Bay should do is run the wildcat with Josh Johnson, and Byron Leftwich in the slot. I think the Buccaneers will get their first win today.

Minnesota Vikings (4-0) @ St. Louis Rams (0-4). See the entry for the Raiders and Giants above. Hence, the Vikings win.

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-1). The Falcons’ pass offense has been mysteriously bad, considering they have Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez. You can’t have a major part of your game sucking against San Francisco. Their running game has always been good with Frank Gore, but now Shaun Hill is playing with great skill, and they’re going to edge out Atlanta. This is a 49ers win.

Houston Texans (2-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-2). The Cardinals’ offense has taken a step back since last year. QB Kurt Warner is on the decline, and former offensive coordinator Todd Haley is now head coach of the Chiefs. Adding to the Cardinals’ woes are three key injuries: WR Steve Breaston, DT Darnell Dockett, and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are all questionable for Sunday’s game. For the Texans, neither Matt Schaub or Steve Slaton have anything wrong with them at all. The Texans‘ offense will explode this week and down the Cardinals.

New England Patriots (3-1) @ Denver Broncos (4-0). Tom Brady’s play is improving, but he’s still not quite up to normal. The Patriots defense this year is mediocre this year. Denver, on the other hand, has a powerful offense and defense. Their weakest position may be at quarterback, but he’s behind a five-star offensive line. The Broncos are going to win this and go 5-0.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-3). Seattle’s pass defense is awful. With the way Jaguars QB David Garrard played last week, that is bad news for Seahawks fans. The Jaguars are going to light it up with Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew, and CB Derek Cox. Matt Hasselbeck has been unable to get any offense going, mostly because he’s been injured, as usual. Therefore, I’m picking the Jaguars to continue their streak and the Seahawks to continue their slide.

Indianapolis Colts (4-0) @ Tennessee Titans (0-4). The Titans’ team suddenly began to fail this year. What happened to the #3 defense of last year? Their run defense is mediocre at best, and their pass defense is horrendous. This does not bode well when facing the #1 quarterback in the league, Peyton Manning, who has found a new receiver in Pierre Garcon. When the Colts’ greatest strength is matched up against the Titans’ greatest weakness, you get a blowout. Peyton Manning is just playing better and better. This is an easy Colts victory.

New York Jets (3-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-3). The Jets are so stacked this year it’s not even funny. A top 5 defense under new head coach Rex Ryan, with a 4-star offensive line protecting the best rookie QB this year, Mark Sanchez, who now has WR Braylon Edwards to throw to, in case he gets bored with Jericho Cotchery. Miami QB Chad Henne is not very good, and the wildcat will fail against the New York defense. This is a Jets win.

Standings after Week 4:

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)
4. Cleveland Browns (0-5)

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts (5-0)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)
3. Houston Texans (3-2)
4. Tennessee Titans (0-5)

AFC East

1. New York Jets (4-1)
2. New England Patriots (3-2)
3. Buffalo Bills (2-3)
4. Miami Dolphins (1-4)

AFC West

1. Denver Broncos (5-0)
2. San Diego Chargers (2-2)
3. Oakland Raiders (1-4)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (0-5)

NFC North

1. Minnesota Vikings (5-0)
2. Chicago Bears (3-1)
3. Green Bay Packers (2-2)
4. Detroit Lions (1-4)

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints (4-0)
2. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
3. Carolina Panthers (1-3)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)

NFC East

1. New York Giants (5-0)
2. Dallas Cowboys (3-2)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
4. Washington Redskins (2-3)

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers (4-1)
2. Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
3. Seattle Seahawks (1-4)
4. St. Louis Rams (0-5)