Northern Ireland, like the Middle East, has consistently been one of the world’s “hot spots” of terrorism. Some observers, however, say that since violence has abated somewhat and cities like Belfast are beginning to see modern development, peace in Northern Ireland is finally at hand. The truth is, although the general conditions in Northern Ireland have improved in the last fifteen years, the peace is fragile, precarious, and vulnerable. One key assassination, such as that of Ian Paisley or Gerry Adams, could spark an explosive conflict. In addition, all attempts at a home government such as those recently installed in Scotland and Wales as part of the British policy of devolution have failed in Northern Ireland. The conflict originated when British Protestant settlers were “given” Irish land by the British government. In the 1920’s, the Catholic part of Ireland became its own country, while the northern Protestant part remained a part of the United Kingdom. The Irish constitution claims for Ireland the whole island, and fighting between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland intensified in the 1960’s through the 1990’s during a time known as “The Troubles.” Neither side has given up their goals to this day. Permanent peace, therefore, is certainly not at hand.
Observers are not mistaken when they see progress in Northern Ireland. Deaths from sectarian violence fell from 44 in 1999 to only six in 2006. The economy grew 2.4% in FY 2005. Unemployment fell from 30% in 1980 to 4.2% today. Belfast’s city center is beginning to show signs of European modernization, such as malls, luxury apartments, retail complexes, and other multimillion-dollar projects. However, all of this has a dark face to it. Deaths due to sectarian violence in 1991 numbered only ten, but they rose again. Although there were only six deaths in 2006, they could just as easily have risen in 2007. The economy may have grown by 2.4% in FY 2005, but it was predicted to rise 2.2% in FY 2006, a goal it failed to meet, growing at only 1.7% in that fiscal year. Unemployment did indeed fall since the 1980’s, but so has the area’s population growth rate. And as for Belfast’s modernized city, it’s just more that can be damaged should another wave of heavy fighting break out. Plans are currently stalled to build a light rail system and a sports stadium, because the contractors don’t trust the state of peace that exists in Northern Ireland.
A major step toward peace was taken in 1998 in the form of the Good Friday Agreement. Local officials were given authority by the British government to set their own taxes, manage their own schools, and administer their own welfare programs. The Catholic terrorist group known as the Irish Republican Army (IRA) also agreed to lay down many of their arms. This sounds like a great plan, but in reality, things didn’t quite go as planned. Firstly, the British government has still yet to give the Northern Irish officials full control over tax programs. Second, the weapons given up by the IRA were mostly old and outdated weapons that they wouldn’t have used anymore anyway. There was even a small group that split off the IRA, calling themselves the Real IRA, and refusing to renounce violence as the IRA had. The Real IRA see the Good Friday Agreement as a step towards the elimination of their goal of Irish unity, while the loyalists see the agreement as the precursor of the United Kingdom washing its hands clean of Northern Ireland, something they certainly don’t want due to the fact that they want to remain a part of Britain.
Third, all attempts at giving Northern Ireland home rule within the United Kingdom have failed. The last assembly was elected five years ago, in 2003. They have never even met for a full day. The last assembly was dismissed. This lack of government is keeping many development projects from moving forward. The problem of forming a government in Northern Ireland is that due to the close distribution of Protestants and Catholics, the major Catholic party, Sinn Fein, led by Gerry Adams, and the major Protestant party, the Democratic Unionist Party, led by Ian Paisley, have to work together in a cooperative government. This, however, is highly unlikely because neither side trusts each other. Worse yet, neither side really wants to share power at all. Ian Paisley gained most of his popularity because of his hard-line anti-Catholic stances over the past thirty years. Both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland have promised economic aid to the north but both also insist that Northern Ireland must first have a stable, cooperative government, something they will probably not have anytime in the near future.
Although much progress has been made in Northern Ireland, there can only be so much positive development achieved while there is no working compromise government. The Good Friday Agreement is only a temporary fix to these problems. As Northern Ireland observer Alan Bock stated: “Hatred and violence are diminishing among the majority that is sick of both – but still strenuously kept alive by minorities that need to keep updating them to survive.” The conflict has existed for hundreds of years and some people will not simply give up their family’s long-time dream of either a united Ireland or an Ireland under the British Crown. In conclusion, peace is not “at hand” until a working compromise government is in place and stable in Northern Ireland.
Bibliography
Bock, Alan (2001, January 10). Mixed peace prospects in Northern Ireland. Retrieved January 7, 2008, from Eye on the Empire Web site
Stinson, Jeffrey (2007, March 19). Peace (finally) at hand in Northern Ireland?. Retrieved January 7, 2008, from USA Today Web site
Smyth, Ted (2007). Can peace finally be at hand in Northern Ireland?. Retrieved January 7, 2008, from Los Angeles Times Web site
