penguinpride

Today is Election Day 2010; what looks to be a historic election is underway. A record amount of money was spent on campaigns, and Democrats’ low turnout looks to be the main cause of an almost certain GOP takeover of the House of Representatives. However, here are my predictions:

US Senate (R+6)

Republicans gain 6: Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

US House of Representatives (R+50)

Republicans gain 52: An even 4.5 dozen (54), minus MD-01 and PA-11, which I think people have been writing off as Republican takeovers but I have doubts.

Democrats gain 2: LA-02 has been held by Republican Joseph Cao ever since former Congressman William Jefferson resigned in the wake of a bribery scandal. I see this district as one that will elect a Democrat today. Also, Mike Castle’s old seat in Deleware (DE-AL) will be won by the Dems.

Maryland Senate (D+1)

Republicans gain 1: District 29, representing St. Mary’s County in southern Maryland, has been served by moderate Democrats in years past, but with the current climate, I think the Republicans will take this district.

Democrats gain 2: District 34, which contains eastern Baltimore County as well as the Harford County shoreline and Cecil County, has been growing in population and trending Democratic, especially in the south of the district near Baltimore, as well as in Elkton. Additionally,  the 38th District, on the Eastern Shore, seems poised to be taken over by longtime Delegate Otto.

Maryland House of Delegates (R+4)

Republicans gain 7: With the current conservative/libertarian wave sweeping the nation, Maryland is not totally immune. I have them picking up seven seats, mostly in the western and southern regions of the state. These districts are: 1B, 2C, 3A, 27B, 29A, 29B, and 38B.

Democrats gain 3: This has been a polarizing year more than anything. Conservatives have become more conservative and liberals have become more liberal. These trends support the 8th District electing 3 Democrats rather than 2 this year. In addition, the District 42 race has been very interesting. Currently 2R/1D, the brilliant campaigns of Lori Albin and Oz Bengur give us hopes for a Democratic sweep of the district.

Penguin Pride polling:

MD-02: Dutch Ruppersberger (D) 70%, Marcelo Cardarelli (R) 29%
MD-03: John Sarbanes (D) 71%, Jim Wilhelm (R) 28%
MD-04: Donna Edwards (D) 88%, Robert Broadus (R) 10%
MD-05: Steny Hoyer (D) 68%, Charles Lollar (R) 31%
MD-06: Roscoe Bartlett (R) 67%, Andrew Duck (D) 31%
MD-07: Elijah Cummings (D) 82%, Frank Mirabile (R) 17%
MD-08: Chris Van Hollen (D) 79%, Michael Lee Phillips (R) 19%

Conducted a few polls in the Baltimore area. Naturally, they only concern local elections. When numbers don’t add up to 100%, the remainder were unsure.

Maryland House of Delegates – Dist. 42 Democratic Primary
1. Steve Lafferty
2. Oz Bengur
3. Art Buist
4. Lori Albin
5. David Kosak

Baltimore County Executive – Democratic Primary
Kevin Kamenetz – 51%
Joe Bartenfelder – 40%

Baltimore County Council – District 5 – Democratic Primary
Mike Ertel – 60%
Bill Paulshock – 20%