It’s obviously really early, but I don’t think the Democrats have much chance gaining back our seats in the General Assembly that we lost in 2010. Most of the seats were in districts which are leaning Republican anyway, and the Democrats who had served there were just riding the wave. I do think District 3A (Frederick City) will elect another Democrat, District 30 (Annapolis) will add at least one more, and District 42 (Towson) will add up to two.

2014 is also the year that Maryland elects a new Governor. Obviously O’Malley can’t run again, so who would you say are the frontrunners for the job from both parties?

The Republicans will have to rely on their Delegates, county officials, or rich businessmen to step up for the job. With the seat being open, the GOP has their best chance to take it. Here’s a few options:

1. Mary Kane. Best known as the running mate for Ehrlich’s unsuccessful 2010 campaign, Ms. Kane also served as Secretary of State for a couple years under Ehrlich. Kane appeals to Republicans and women, but her wealth won’t make her popular with Maryland’s middle class, let alone the lower class. She also seems to carry no weight whatsoever with African Americans, so a Kane-Michael Steele ticket would be the only viable option for them.
2. E. J. Pipkin. A State Senator, Pipkin is known for being a moderate Republican who nevertheless sticks to his guns. His principles have won him much respect among Republicans and independents alike, but he has never shown interest in running for any office higher than the State Senate. If he does throw his hat into the ring, the GOP could really pick anyone to run on his ticket.
3. J. B. Jennings. The candidate most likely to be supported by the pro-business wing of the GOP, Jennings was just elected to the State Senate to replace Andy Harris after a lengthy career in the House of Delegates. His love for corporations won’t endear him to Maryland’s working class or the labor unions, and I don’t expect him to have much, if any, support among independents.

For Democrats, it’s much easier to speculate, as we have many more candidates with experience.

1. Anthony Brown. Governor O’Malley’s Lieutenant Governor is so popular that he had his own contribution page this past November, raising hundreds of thousands of dollars in his own right for the O’Malley-Brown ticket. Brown attended Harvard with President Obama, then proceeded to serve in Iraq. These identities make the African-American war veteran extremely popular in a state that is 30% African American, the home of the important Fort Meade military base, and anywhere from 66-75% Democratic. Given this information (plus the fact that he’s one position down from Governor anyway), Brown is the current favorite to succeed O’Malley in 2014.
2. Doug Gansler. Another popular member of Martin O’Malley’s administration is the Attorney General, Doug Gansler. AG’s typically have great amounts of success in running for other offices given their extensive legal backgrounds. Gansler has a reputation for being tough on crime and was re-elected unopposed in 2010.
3. Dutch Ruppersberger. Charles Albert “Dutch” Ruppersberger is extremely popular in the 2nd Congressional district, which he represents in Congress. He has experience at nearly every level of government: he has served as a State’s Attorney, County Councilman, County Executive, and finally Congressman. His experience will serve him well should he choose to run for Governor, but his lack of name recognition throughout the state could prove problematic, at least initially.
4. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Ms. Townsend has largely disappeared since her unsuccessful 2002 campaign for Governor, but I wouldn’t write her off. Given the lack of female politicians in high Maryland offices, Townsend becomes a viable option. Her unsuccessful run will weigh her down greatly, just as Ehrlich’s 2006 defeat helped defeat him again in 2010. But KKT is a politico, and as I mentioned, an experienced female politician. Her being a Democrat could balance out the weight of her electoral defeat, which can be attributed to poor campaign management and the utter lack of support from outgoing Governor Parris Glendenning.
5. Donna Edwards. The only other woman with a high political office (other than Sen. Mikulski) is Representative Donna Edwards from the 4th District. She is also African-American, which could lead to a huge black turnout to the midterm election, which is a rarity. Playing strictly identity politics, Edwards is a great choice, and she has a reputation as a bold progressive, leading a campaign against fellow Democrat Al Wynn, who had voted against the estate tax and for the Iraq War.